Contending with Materiel Convergence: Optimal Control, Coordination, and Delivery of Critical Supplies to the Site of Extreme Events

Abstract: The overall goal of this project submitted to the Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) solicitation (NSF 06-509) is to develop methodologies and tools to foster an accelerated convergence between the dynamic needs and supplies of critical resources (e.g., blood, water) to the site of an extreme event. These methodologies will be based on concepts from the social sciences, control theory, and robust stochastic optimization of dynamic supply chains with the aim of reducing adverse impacts of convergent low priority goods, while expediting the flow of high priority supplies to various response related sites. Achieving the overall goal of this project requires a modeling framework that integrates concepts from the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization of supply chains, to bridge the gap between dynamic demand and supply of critical resources (i.e., resources available on site, private donations, resources provided by emergency agencies) after an extreme event. These mathematical procedures would be used to help advise the general public about donation priorities; thus reducing the probability of a repeat of the experience with previous extreme events in which a massive influx of non-priority donations hampered the flow of critical resources. The project would seek to develop novel analytical formulations to: (1) Forecast what is needed, providing robust estimates of the dynamic resource requirements following an extreme event (e.g., demand for water or food); (2) Estimate what is available, i.e., critical resources available on site and in adjacent areas; (3) Estimate the dynamic pattern of unmet needs, i.e., what needs to be transported to the site; (4) Establish an optimal strategy of priority allocation among the donations from the general public and emergency agencies; (5) Design the most effective ways to deliver, store and distribute critical supplies to the impacted area; (6) Identify institutional impediments to coordinate an effective response to extreme events, and formulate mechanisms to overcome these obstacles; and, (7) Identify ways in which tighter integration of the information technology systems can be achieved among stakeholders.

The work will lead to scientific contributions in the social sciences, control theory, robust and stochastic optimization, dynamic modeling of supply chains; and to improve the Nation's emergency response capabilities. As a part of the effort to promote learning education at all levels, the research team will engage both undergraduates and middle school students in research activities with specific emphasis on members of underrepresented groups