Four Digit Codes

Your grades are displayed using four-digit codes. Here are the probabilities that in a class of N students, two students choose the same code. Notice that once we have about 120 students then there is a better than 50-50 chance that at least one code will be duplicated. For sections of 30 students, the probability of duplication is only about 1 in 23.

These were calculated using a fortran program.

These calculations assume that each choice is equally likely. This is similar to assuming that each choice of lottery numbers is equally likely, which is not the case, because people choose numbers such as birthdays of family members. The CHANCE website includes a discussion of lotteries, including some interesting statistics.


John Mitchell