Petroleum feedstocks already increasing expensive.
The supply of petroleum will peak when increases in consumption outpace discovery of new sources.
Expert predictions range from 2004 to 2020 with 2007 as the median date.
The sketch shows what will happen to the price of oil:
Predicted Trends As Oil Supply Peaks
Figure taken from: R. Bezdek and R. Wendling, "Oil Peaking, Mitigation, and Risk Management", Beyond $2 Gallon:
Satisfying Our Future
Energy Needs, The 2005 Tripartite Symposium, Pittsburgh, May, 2005
Biomass feedstocks likely to be highly competitive
Biomass refining costs are relatively much more stable. Economies of scale will cut in and step yields
are certain to improve.
Wonderful opportunity for biomass refining for alcohol fuel or substitutes for petrochemicals
because the competitors using petroleum will have escalating costs.
For more information: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT
R.L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
R. Bezdek, MISI
R. Wendling, MISI
February 2005
N E X T
Slide List