Petroleum feedstocks already increasing expensive.

  • The supply of petroleum will peak when increases in consumption outpace discovery of new sources.
  • Expert predictions range from 2004 to 2020 with 2007 as the median date.
  • The sketch shows what will happen to the price of oil:

    Predicted Trends As Oil Supply Peaks


    Figure taken from: R. Bezdek and R. Wendling, "Oil Peaking, Mitigation, and Risk Management", Beyond $2 Gallon:
    Satisfying Our Future Energy Needs, The 2005 Tripartite Symposium, Pittsburgh, May, 2005

    Biomass feedstocks likely to be highly competitive

  • Biomass refining costs are relatively much more stable. Economies of scale will cut in and step yields are certain to improve.
  • Wonderful opportunity for biomass refining for alcohol fuel or substitutes for petrochemicals because the competitors using petroleum will have escalating costs.
  • For more information: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT R.L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader R. Bezdek, MISI R. Wendling, MISI February 2005
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