• This month (October, 1999), the world's "6 Billionth Baby" was/or will be born! How much is 6 billion? If you clap one every second to signify one individual you have counted, and you clap all day, all month, all year non-stop, you have to clap for 222 years to count the number of people on Earth (McDaniel, pers. comm.).

• No one knows when or where the baby will arrive. It could be a girl or a boy, the child of a millionaire or — far more likely — the child of a family living on less than a dollar a day.

• But regardless of where the infant draws its first breath, it will be endowed with the fundamental human rights as any other child — to life, to protection, to education, to health care, to an adequate standard of living and more.

• There is a catch, however. The child's chances of enjoying these birthrights, and of fulfilling his or her potential, will depend on where this baby is born and to whom - and whether it is a girl or a boy.

• PLAYING THE ODDS:

•The 6 billionth baby has less than 1 chance in 10 of being born into relative prosperity, as a member of the majority in an industrialized country or of the wealthy minority in a developing one. On the other hand, the child has 3 chances in 10 of being born into extreme poverty — and 4 in 10 of being only marginally better off.

•The 6 billionth child will also find himself in a world where the gap between rich and poor has never been so wide. The richest one fifth of humanity has 82 times the income of the poorest fifth — and consumes 86 per cent of the world's resources.

•The 6 billionth child will be particularly disadvantaged if she is born into a minority ethnic group — a category that includes two thirds of the poorest children in the United States, for example. In Peru, indigenous people are one-and-a-half times more likely to be poor and almost three times more likely to be extremely poor non-indigenous people.

•If the baby is a girl, she will also be worse off than a boy born almost anywhere. She may receive less than her brother may when food is scarce, and she will be less likely to start school. If she is put in school, she will have a greater chance than her brother of being taken out, either to save her family the cost of schooling or because she is needed to work at home.

• The 6 billionth baby's future will also be much brighter if her mother has received some education. The child will be less likely to die in infancy, will grow up healthier and better fed and will be more likely to start and to stay in school. Indeed, increased schooling for girls sends benefits cascading through societies and economies. As more girls are educated, and for longer periods, their confidence and empowerment will rise, and infant mortality and population growth will fall — all of this a boon to life expectancy and overall economic growth.

• Imagine compressing the WHOLE world into this classroom. It really is not a very big room so perhaps we can represent the total number of people by only about 100 (each one representing 60 million people).

• WHAT WOULD THE CLASSROOM LOOK LIKE? I want you to make a guess as to what the room full of people would be like. I'll tell you what it is like:

• 57 Asians, 21 Europeans, 14 North+South Americans, 8 Africans: ladies and gentlemen, Introducing the World's people!

• 30 Whites, 70 Non-Whites

• 30 Christians, 70 Non-Christians

• 50 % of the wealth will be in the hands of only 6 people.

• ALL 6 WILL BE CITIZENS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

• Here are the bad news:

1. 70 would be unable to read
2. 50 will be malnourished
3. 80 cannot afford basic housing
4. Only 1 will have a college education (guess who?)

• Imagine each table to contain all the food/resources available (Yummy!). Can you smell it? Now I want the 80 or so of you who cannot afford decent housing to share the food in this one small Table in front of me. My favorite 20 or so, help yourself with everything else that remains.

• Oh, by the way, the 80 of you who will share that small table, I have one more minor instruction for you: let the boys go first. (minorities and indigenous people, not so fast).

• How does this make you feel? This IS the world you live in. Comment on:

USE WITH PRB SLIDES AT http:// www.prb.org

It took all of human history until the early 1800s for the world’s population to reach the first billion, 130 years to reach the second, 30 years to add the third, 14 years to add the fourth, and 13 years to add the fifth.

•In 1999, the world’s population is expected to reach 6 billion. This billion increase in 12 years will represent the most rapid increase ever.

•The United Nations medium projections show that another billion people will be added in just 14 years.

•Most of the world’s population growth is occurring in less developed countries.

•Currently, 84 million people are being added every year in less developed countries, compared with only about 1.5 million in more developed countries.

•According to UN medium projections, today’s more developed country populations are projected to remain relatively constant throughout the next century while less developed country populations are projected to keep growing.

•The world’s population is increasing because more people are born than die each year.

•For example, between 1997 and 1998, approximately 137 million people were born worldwide and some 53 million died. As a result, the world’s population grew by nearly 84 million.

•This is almost three times the annual increase in population size that occurred 50 years ago: between 1947 and 1948, the world’s population increased by about 29 million.

•Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.

•Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow.

•Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline. (See graph on Annual World Population Growth).

•The rate of world population growth peaked in the late 1960s and has declined since. According to UN medium projections, it will continue to decline.

•At the same time, world population, estimated at 2.5 billion in the 1950s, continues to increase, and could reach almost 9 billion by 2050, according to UN medium projections.

•Thus, while the rate of population growth is in decline, the absolute number of people continues to grow. The absolute increases are largely the result of three factors: a high concentration of people in young age groups; levels of childbearing, especially in developing countries; and continuing improvements in mortality, particularly in countries where life expectancy is relatively low.

•Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.

•Over one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In many sub-Saharan African countries, this proportion rises to nearly one-half of the population. In contrast, only one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.

•Today there are 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents.

•Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.

•The number of people under age 25 has more than doubled since the 1950s: from 1.33 billion to 2.71 billion in 1990. According to UN medium projections, their numbers are expected to peak around the year 2030 at over 3 billion, and to slowly decline thereafter.

•In 1990, over one-half of the world’s population was under age 25. Of these, about 1 billion were teenagers between the ages of 15 and 24, the ages at which most young people begin childbearing.

•The large proportion of youths in less developed countries reflects a growing number of people who will be seeking employment in the near future.

•Bangladesh is an example of one country whose working-age population is projected to double within a period of 30 years.

•The number of women of childbearing ages 15-49 has more than doubled since the 1950s: from 620 million in the 1950s to over 1.3 billion in 1990.

•Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of the next century, according to the UN’s medium projections.

•The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.

•Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to less than three in 1995.

•All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.

•The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.

•The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase through 2050.

•Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.

•Every region has been experiencing declines in levels of childbearing. The greatest declines since the late 1960s have occurred in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, at the end of the century, only the more developed regions have childbearing levels below the replacement level of 2.1, the level required for population growth to eventually stop growing and stabilize at a given size.

•Women in Africa have the highest number of children: on average, more than five children each, compared with nearly seven children 30 years ago.

•Women in more developed countries have the fewest children: less than two, compared with about 2.4 30 years ago. This low level of childbearing, combined with an older population, accounts for population declines in many European countries.

•One factor contributing to future population growth is a population’s age structure. A population with greater numbers of young people tends to grow faster regardless of the level of childbearing.

•All countries shown here have below "replacement level" childbearing —the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2025.

•Although women in both Taiwan and Japan have on average 1.4 children each, Taiwan, with a more youthful population, will continue growing between 1999 and 2025, adding over 3.4 million people, while Japan, with an older population, is projected to lose 5.8 million people during that time.

•Currently, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 65 years — up nine years since the late 1960s.

•Asia has experienced the largest increase in life expectancy since the late 1960s: from 54 years to 66 years.

•Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 75 years, compared with only 51 years in Africa.

•In the last three decades, the worldwide rate of death to children under age 1 has dropped by nearly one-half: from 102 deaths per 1,000 live births in the late 1960s to 57 deaths in the late 1990s.

•The rate of infant mortality varies widely by region. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, the infant mortality rate is almost 10 times higher than the rate for more developed regions (87 compared with 9).

•By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be over age 65.

•By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.

•Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 5.4 percent in 1995 to 10.1 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase within 30 years: from about 186 million elderly persons to nearly 477 million elderly persons.

•The world is becoming increasingly urban. By 2005, half of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas. Typically, the population living in towns of 2,000 or more, or in national and provincial capitals, is classified as urban.

•Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under one-third of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will have exceeded 50 percent.

•By 2030, more than three-fifths of the world’s population will be living in urban areas. Over half of urban dwellers worldwide at that time will reside in Asia.

•The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly in size and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1960 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 1995, only Tokyo remained in the top three.

•In 1960, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 14 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with double this population size: nearly 29 million.

•By 2015 the size of the three largest cities in the world will be two to three times larger than they were in 1960, ranging between 25 million to 29 million compared with 9 million to 14 million.

•International migration is at an all-time high.

•About 125 million people lived outside their native countries in the mid-1990s, and the number is increasing by 2 million to 4 million each year.

•Major migration streams flow to the more developed regions and the Middle East.

•Small differences in levels of childbearing can result in very large differences in population size. The three latest UN scenarios differ principally by their assumptions regarding levels of childbearing — the number of children today’s youth will have in their lifetime.

•World population is projected to continue rising for the next 50 years in all three scenarios:

High: If childbearing falls from its 1998 level of nearly 3 children per woman to levels between 2.5 and 2.6 children per woman, world population is projected to hit 11.2 billion by 2050.

Medium: If childbearing falls further to an average slightly above two children per woman, world population is projected to reach 9.4 billion by 2050.

Low: If childbearing plummets to between 1.35 and 1.6 children per woman, world population is projected to rise to 7.7 billion by 2050.

•Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities.

•Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Germany, for example, there are 330 doctors for every 100,000 people.

•This is over 15 times higher than in Bangladesh, which has only 20 doctors for every 100,000 people.

•OECD countries: In 1995 the wealthiest, industrialized countries of the world, members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), made up 17 percent of the world’s population, but consumed more than half of all energy. These countries also produced 42 percent of the world’s energy, emphasizing that many developed countries are still heavily dependent on imported energy supplies to fuel their economies.

•Former Soviet republics and Central Europe: With just 7 percent of the world’s population, the former Soviet republics and Central Europe are producing 17 percent of the world’s energy. This is of concern because these countries, as well as other countries, are heavily dependent on fossil energy sources, particularly coal, which significantly contributes to global emissions of greenhouse gases, greatly increasing the potential impact of climate change.

•Other countries: In 1995, these countries accounted for one third of world energy consumption even though they contain three quarters of the world’s population. Although total energy use has increased greatly in the developing world since 1973, rapid population increases have kept per capita energy use in developing nations very low compared with use in the developed world. On average, energy use per person is more than nine times greater in developed countries than in developing countries.

Note:

OECD countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.

Countries of the former Soviet Union and Central Europe: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

•The renewable supply of water is defined as the surface water runoff from local precipitation, the inflow from other regions, and the groundwater recharge that replenishes aquifers.

•Countries vary greatly in the availability of fresh water. The presence is especially acute in Kenya and Jordan.

•As population increases, the amount of fresh water available to each person decreases. Bangladesh and the United States, for example, have roughly equal supplies of renewable fresh water. Due to the difference in the size of their populations, however, in 1995 the amount of water available to each person in Bangladesh is twice the amount available to each U.S. citizen. However, because Bangladesh’s population is growing three times faster than the U.S. population, the rate of water availability is projected to fall more quickly in Bangladesh over the next 50 years, holding the total annual renewable fresh water constant.

•Almost half of the forests that originally covered the earth have been cleared, fragmented, or otherwise degraded. Those that remain are located in just a few places, mostly in the Amazon Basin, Central Africa, Canada, and Russia.

•These large blocks of ecologically intact natural forest, or frontier forest, are valuable because they house indigenous cultures, shelter global biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, store carbon, contribute to local and national economic growth, and provide resources to address recreation, ecotourism, and spiritual and aesthetic needs.

•Thirty-nine percent of the remaining frontier forest is threatened by logging, mining, and other large-scale development projects.

•The need for family planning is high in many less developed countries. Analysts measure total need for family planning by adding two components: actual use and "potential need." Actual use represents current family planning users and currently pregnant women who were using family planning but experienced method failure. Potential need represents women who say they desire to space or limit births but are not currently using a family planning method.

•For each country shown, family planning use is higher among more educated women than among less educated women.

•Less educated women, however, have a higher potential need for family planning than more educated women. In Peru, for example, 23 percent of women with no education say they want to space or limit births but are not currently using a family planning method, compared with 10 percent among women with at least a secondary education.

•Higher use of family planning* is reported among more educated women than women with no formal education, regardless of culture or religion.

•In less developed countries, higher education is associated with lower levels of childbearing.

•Women who have completed secondary school education have about 2 fewer children than women with no education; in some countries, e.g. Peru and Haiti, the gap is much larger.

•Higher educational attainment of mothers is associated with lower levels of infant mortality.

•In Zambia, for example, among infants born to mothers with no education 133 die per 1,000 live births. This rate drops among infants born to mothers with at least a secondary school education, to 82.

•More educated teens are less likely to have a child than less educated teens.

•For example, among women ages 20 to 24 in Kenya, 70 percent of women with less than seven years of schooling gave birth before they turned 20, compared with 45 percent of women with seven or more years of schooling.

•Age at first marriage for women varies greatly from country to country.

•For most women around the world, childbearing takes place in the context of marriage. In countries where a significant proportion of women are married before age 18, the likelihood of early childbearing is increased.

•In Bangladesh, for example, 73 percent of women are married before age 18 and about 15 percent of women ages 15 to 19 give birth each year. Conversely, a much smaller proportion of women are married before age 18 in the United States (11 percent), and a smaller proportion of women ages 15 to 19 give birth each year (5 percent).

•Higher levels of family planning use are associated with lower levels of childbearing.

•In Africa, where a small proportion of married women of childbearing age practice family planning (24 percent), on average women have over 5 children each.

•In contrast, in more developed regions, where a much greater percentage of married women of childbearing age practice family planning (72 percent), women have fewer children (under two on average).

•Each year, around 6 percent of girls worldwide ages 15 to 19 give birth.

•The proportion of teen childbearing varies by region. Africa has the largest proportion of teenagers giving birth (12 percent) while Europe has the smallest (2 percent).

•North America (here referring to Canada and the United States) has a greater percentage of teenagers giving birth than Europe (5 percent compared with 2 percent).

•In many countries, a large proportion of births are unintended.

•In Kenya and Bolivia, nearly 60 percent of births are unintended.

•In the United States, nearly half of all births are unintended.

Note: U.S. data include all women of childbearing age. All other country data include currently married women of childbearing age.

"unintended births" include babies reported both as unwanted and mistimed.

•High infant mortality may be both a cause and an effect of high levels of childbearing.

•In Africa, where infant mortality is high (88 infants die per 1,000 live births), on average women have over five children each.

•In contrast, in more developed regions, where infant mortality is low (fewer than 10 infants die per thousand live births), women have fewer than two children on average.

•Babies born less than two years after their next oldest brother or sister are about twice as likely to die in their first year as those born after an interval of at least two years.

•In less developed countries, closely spaced pregnancies are more likely to result in low birth-weight babies who are more vulnerable to infection and thus less likely to survive.

•On average, infant mortality in less developed countries would be reduced by one-quarter if all births were spaced at least two years apart.

•According to UNICEF almost 12 million children under age 5 die each year.

•Around 40 percent of children’s deaths are due to acute respiratory infections or diarrhea.

•WHO estimates that malnutrition was associated with over half of all children’s deaths that occurred in less developed countries in 1995.

•Nearly 600,000 women die every year from causes related to pregnancy, childbirth, or abortion, and most of these deaths are preventable.

•The ratio of maternal deaths to live births varies enormously throughout the world, from an average of 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in more developed regions to 880 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in Africa.

•Over 95 percent of maternal deaths occur in the less developed world, particularly in Asia and Africa.

•While high-quality, accessible health care has made maternal death a rare event in more developed countries, the lack of such health care has fatal consequences for pregnant women in less developed countries.

•Nearly 600,000 women die every year from causes related to pregnancy, and most of these deaths are preventable.

•About 80 percent of maternal deaths are due to direct complications of pregnancy and childbirth, such as severe bleeding, infection, unsafe abortion, hypertensive disorders, and obstructed labor.

•Women also die of indirect causes aggravated by pregnancy such as malaria, diabetes, hepatitis, and anemia.

•Teenage women have higher rates of death due to pregnancy and childbirth-related causes than do older women—twice as high, according to WHO estimates.

•Teenage women who become pregnant face higher health risks. Many young pregnant women are unmarried; their pregnancies are often unplanned; and they have poor access to prenatal, delivery, and postpartum care. Young pregnant women are at high risk of unsafe abortion in many countries.

•Poor access to health services, and low quality services, are especially dangerous for women pregnant for the first time. First-time pregnancies are at highest risk for obstructed labor, hypertension leading to eclampsia, and in many countries malaria, all of which can lead to death if good treatment is unavailable. Very young teenagers, and undernourished women at all ages, may be at especially high risk of obstructed labor because of small pelvises.

•In countries where a greater percentage of births are attended by trained personnel (including doctors, nurses, and midwives) women tend to experience lower levels of maternal mortality.

•A higher percentage of trained personnel also facilitates easier access to and greater use of services for prenatal, delivery, postpartum care, and emergency obstetric treatment, all of which greatly reduce the possibility for maternal death.

•As of the end of 1998, an estimated 33.4 million adults and children worldwide were living with HIV or AIDS.

•A large majority of the world’s HIV/AIDS population lives in less developed countries.

•68 percent of the world’s HIV/AIDS population lives in sub-Saharan Africa.

•The proportion of people living with HIV/AIDS who are adult women (age 15+) is nearly twice as high in sub-Saharan Africa as it is in other regions.

•In sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV is spread predominantly through heterosexual activity, women account for nearly one-half of the 21 million people living with HIV/AIDS. In other regions, the proportion of people living with HIV/AIDS who are women drops to nearly one-fourth.

•AIDS has reduced life expectancy in several countries around the world.

•In Zimbabwe, for example, without accounting for the impact of AIDS, life expectancy would have been 65 years in 1998; however, with AIDS, life expectancy has dropped to 39 years.

•Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write.

•However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 46 percent in Africa, to 60 percent in Asia, to 85 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.

•Overall, more men are literate than women. This is especially striking in Africa and Asia, where the gender gap reaches about 20 percent.

•Worldwide, fewer girls than boys enroll in secondary school.

•This percentage masks a great disparity in enrollment ratios between less and more developed regions. In less developed regions, 56 boys and 47 girls enroll in secondary school for every 100 boys and girls, respectively, of secondary school age, compared with nearly all girls and boys who enroll in more developed regions.

•In Africa and Asia, more boys than girls attend school, but in Latin America, more girls than boys attend secondary school.

•Worldwide, women are far less likely to work in the formal labor force than are men (54 percent compared with 82 percent).

•The greatest gap between men’s and women’s participation in the formal labor force is in Latin America and the Caribbean, where 82 percent of men work in the formal labor force compared with 40 percent of women.

•Even in more developed regions, about 20 percent more men than women work in the formal labor force.

•Men hold a disproportionate number of parliamentary seats around the world.

•While the number of women parliamentarians have quadrupled over the last 50 years, from about 3 percent to about 12 percent, the Inter-Parliamentary Union finds this progress unsatisfactory and present prospects discouraging.

•Men play an important role in decisions about family size.

•A 1992 Demographic and Health Survey in Egypt showed that around one-half of husbands and wives reported making decisions together on whether to have another child.

•Nevertheless, 40 percent of husbands and 34 percent of wives considered the husband to be the prime decision-maker on this issue.

•Only 4 percent of husbands and 6 percent of wives estimated the wife to be the prime decision-maker on this issue.

•Studies show that men often want more children than their wives.

•In Niger and Senegal, husbands reported wanting at least three more children than their wives.

•In Brazil and Bangladesh, there is little difference between spouses in the number of children desired.

•In countries where there is a high degree of communication between couples, there is also a greater use of family planning.

•In Egypt, where almost 80 percent of husbands said they had discussed family planning with their wives during the preceding year, 50 percent of husbands reported that they were practicing family planning.

•In Niger, where 25 percent of husbands said they had discussed family planning with their wives, only 7 percent of husbands reported that they were practicing family planning.

•Almost all of the world’s population growth between now and 2100 will occur in today’s less developed countries. Three factors account for this projected growth. A 1994 simulation of future growth showed:

(1) Unwanted births accounting for an increase of nearly 2 billion people.

(2) Childbearing above two children per woman accounting for an increase of 1 billion.

(3) Population momentum — the tendency for a population to increase even after childbearing levels have dropped (due to a high concentration of people in their childbearing years)— accounting for half, or nearly 3 billion, of projected increases by 2100.

•All three components of growth can be addressed by noncoercive policy options: increased access to voluntary family planning, increased education especially for girls, reductions in infant and child mortality, and special health education for boys and girls.