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A tangent to the discussion of the net
Andrew D. Tinkham <tinkha@rpi.edu>
Thursday, September 05, 1996 2:58 PM
As a tangent to the discussion of nettiquette and the increasing
commercialization of the 'Net, I thought that I would forward
this column that I got. What do people think that the role of
existing media companies should be (if any) on the 'Net? Also,
to tie it in to EG, are there any opinions on how online newspapers
or similar types of things as discussed in this column tie into
the net as depicted in the book?
Andy
--- Forwarded mail from davidsol@panix.com (David S. Bennahum)
Thu, 5 Sep 1996 14:09:45 -0500
"David S. Bennahum" <davidsol@panix.com>
MEME 2.10
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meme: (pron. 'meem') A contagious idea that replicates like a virus, passed on from mind to mind. Memes function the same way genes and viruses do, propagating through communication networks and face-to-face contact between people. Root of the word "memetics," a field of study which postulates that the meme is the basic unit of cultural evolution. Examples of memes include melodies, icons, fashion statements and phrases.
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MEME 2.10
GO LOCAL!
"We have always known that Microsoft was going to come in
with big guns. That is one of the reasons we came up with this
early Web presence," Gena Maniscalo says. "Timing is
everything, and we are ahead." Maniscalo, Executive Director
of Boston.Com, a Web site built by the Boston Globe newspaper,
is on the front-lines of an escalating info-war in cyberspace.
I recently spoke with Maniscalo, along with interactive media
directors at The Washington Post, Dallas Morning News and Sacramento
Bee, along with representatives of AOL, AT&T and Microsoft,
all of whom now find themselves in the same business. This fall,
a war for our eyes and mice is poised to go public, arriving at
a Web site near you.
With surprisingly little fanfare, a who's-who of media and communications
in the United States has simultaneously decided that the "killer
app" that will morph the Web from a novelty to a necessity
is a simple metaphor, what some call "digital cities."
Each player comes to the Web with a particular strategy, however
all are vying for the same goal: to be the online resource for
information about your city. AOL, AT&T, Microsoft, the Boston
Globe, New York Times, Washington Post, over 300 daily newspapers
to date, television stations, and radio stations are all online
building variations on this go-local theme. At stake, according
to the players, is the $66 billion spent annually on local advertising
in the United States -- money that now goes to the "old"
media -- television, radio and newspapers.
The money invested in these sites is huge -- a billion or so.
Microsoft's project, code-named "Cityscape" is estimated
to have a US $500M budget. America Online's "Digital Cites"
project has $100M in capital. AT&T's "Hometown Network"
has an undisclosed budget, which, according to industry analysts,
falls somewhere close to AOL's budget. Tack on the 300 odd newspapers,
with 5 to 10 new ones coming online weekly, each with budgets
ranging from $100,000 to millions, along with local televisionand
radio stations, and it's clear that an awful lot is being wagered
on this city concept.
SINK OR SINK?
Newspapers are caught in the middle of this stampede -- damned-if-they-do,
damned-if-they-don't. At the heart of these city strategies is
a simple calculation. A lot of money is spent on advertising for
local products. If people became accustomed to getting local information
online, a portion of these ad budgets will migrate from the "old"
media to the "new" media. U.S. Newspapers received approximately
$36 billion in advertising last year, and 80% of that was placed
by local vendors, as opposed to national advertisers. These local
ads are sometimes referred to as "the newspaper's franchise."
Consequently, newspaper publishers see these online ventures as
a threat. They also recognize that computer networks are not a
passing fad. They are here to stay.
The logical choice, at first glance, is for newspapers to jump
into the Web, build a local site there, cross-fingers, and hope
that somehow, someway whatever ad revenue is siphoned off into
cyberspace will remain within their corporate balance-sheet. Newspapers,
however, don't have particularly deep-pockets, and going online
in style is expensive. According to Forrester Research, a Cambridge,
Massachusetts, market-research firm, typical Web sites will lose
$3.9 million beyond their initial investment before turning profitable.
Worse, the average site is expected to continue bleeding money
until at least the year 2000 or later when, if you follow the
number of people going online, 20% of the U.S. adult population
will have Web access.
So the newspapers could opt out, hanging on the sidelines. But
what if they're wrong? What if, after all, these city-sites are
the "killer app"? Then they've blown it. Ad dollars
will flow out of the newspaper to a new competitor. This is their
dilemma, and either way all but the best-financed papers are vulnerable,
eyeing a deep and dark money-pit. They cannot afford to lose big
money online. If they do, it could drive some of them into the
red, and from there it's a dangerous game whose price could be
the existence of their newspaper.
The "new" media players -- AOL, AT&T, Microsoft
-- understand this dynamic, and it is playing in their favor.
They can afford to spend big money, be wrong, and lose it (at
least AT&T and Microsoft can). For instance, in Microsoft's
last fiscal year, the average employee generated $108,103 in profits.
The average newspaper employee produced $6,781. While this in
part reflects the very different nature of these industries --
Microsoft's is less labor intensive, while newspapers require
an armada of personnel, from truck drivers to editors -- it underscores
the financial risk Microsoft can take.
What's disturbing, however, is how untested this city metaphor
is, and how convinced everyone is that this is the right way to
go. Ultimately, these ideas devolve towards shopping guides --
best movie, best clothing sale, best play, best restaurant, best
hotel. It is unclear that this alone can anchor people's interest
by bringing essential repeat visits. Another option is to deliver
news online. This is attractive, but the odds of several hundred
news sites thriving is counter-intuitive -- perhaps a dozen could,
but hundreds? How many versions of a national or international
story can people stand to read? Delivering super-specific local
news is one option, whether this can lead to a thriving online
business is a highly speculative assumption. I find all these
options oddly anachronistic, in quasi-denial of what's new with
computer networks. Interestingly, the one option that might work
is rarely mentioned, what I call "taking the pulse"
of a city.
STEAL THIS IDEA
Imagine, briefly, that your city is an organism with people as
cells, cells forming organs, which in turn form the whole. These
organs are our civic institutions, businesses, and cultural gatherings.
As large groups, we create events moment by moment -- traffic
snarls here, subway delays there, hospitals with overflow here,
ticket-sales blooming across town. In turn, these movements have
history, called patterns. Some hospitals are slower at delivering
emergency care than others, some intersections are notoriously
clogged. Some city offices deliver certain services faster than
others, at different times. Add in volume of financial transactions
at movie theaters, automatic teller machines and restaurants,
for instance. Toss in reported crime by type and location. Pretty
soon you have an accurate reflection of your city which could
be useful in a way that does not replicate the existing "old"
media.
Cyberspace is exciting partly because it offers new forms of expression
and widens our ability to reach each other devoid of an intermediary.
The shame with these city ideas is that they could wind up silencing
sections of the "old" media, forcing a round of consolidation
in the newspaper industry as the cost of these new ventures forces
weaker players to seek financial salvation. It's doubly upsetting
if these city metaphors turn out to be unappealing, destined to
be categorized as yet another high-tech boondoggle with a nasty
side-effect. In the United States where freedom of the press was
explicitly established as a bulwark of democracy it's a bitter
irony that the Net, a medium celebrated as a means of supporting
the free-flow of ideas, may contribute to the contraction of ideas
offline.
A list of interesting city-based Web sites:
The Boston Globe, with their Boston city-guide:
http://www.boston.com/
Citysearch, acquired by AT&T, and their guide:
http://www.citysearch.com/
The Dallas Morning News and its publisher have many cities:
http://www.cityview.com/
An interesting, AT&T affiliated, guide to Minneapolis:
http://www.wcco.com/
Future home of AOL's Digital Cities, Inc.:
http://www.digitalcity.com/
The Sacramento Bee newspaper does Sacramento, California:
http://www.sacbee.com/
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Send comments to davidsol@panix.com.
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Re: A tangent to the discussion of the net
Daniel M. Cohen <cohend3>
Thu, 05 Sep 1996 18:41 -0400
in Andrew D. Tinkham's message:
If people became accustomed to getting local information online, a portion of these ad budgets will migrate from the "old" media to the "new" media. end of quote.
As far as I'm concerned, I believe this whole Heartedly. I would
also like to add a query to every one: What would it take for
every company in the world to put there product online?
For example, Newspaper companies still distribute their newspaper
at newstands and coffee shops and the such.. What would it take
for that system to become obsolete? What would it take to just
distribute their newspaper only on the internet? I have tried
to answer this question from many angles but I never seem to get
anywhere. Maybe by posting it here I can get a more complete r
response.
One of my responses:
One invention I feel needs to be created, is a portable internet
display. A tool that will allow someone to explore the internet
and small enough that they can carry it everywhere. This could
solve the problem of how people like reading the newspaper at
the dinner table. They could instead bring there portable Internet
Device (PID).
Dan
P.S. Maybe Im asking the wrong question.. Either way.. I hope
someone responds..
RE: A tangent to the discussion of the net
Anthony Mrazik <mrazia@rpi.edu>
Thu, 05 Sep 1996 20:21 -0400
>For example, Newspaper companies still distribute their newspaper
at >newstands and coffee shops and the such.. What would it
take for that system to become obsolete? What would it take to
just distribute their >newspaper only on the internet? I have
tried to answer this question from >many angles but I never
seem to get anywhere. Maybe by posting it here I >can get a
more complete response.
It is going to take a long time before newspapers appear only
on the internet. Reason: there aren't that many people with access
to the internet. I have heard many figures, but I think that the
percentage of people in the US with access is somewhere between
10-20%. We are lucky to have the computing resources we have.
Of course for the tuition we pay they should be better, but that
it another discussion.
Tony Mrazik
Re: A tangent to the discussion of the net
Watts <takats2@rpi.edu>
Sat, 07 Sep 1996 12:38 -0400
In response to Dan's question about the migration from "old"
media to "new" media:
With all the hype about the net and getting everything on the
net, people often overlook the fact that the net is simply not
a good medium for everyone and everything.
IMHO I don't think that print will ever be completely replaced
by on-line print. I believe that more and more things will become
available through the electronic medium, but I think things such
as legal documents will need hard copies just in case something
happens to the virtual copies.
I believe the best way to maximize electronic media is to integrate
it into our lives, not let it take over our lives.
--Sarah
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@}~~~)~~~~~ @}~~~)~~~~~ @}~~~)~~~~~ @}~~~)~~~~~ @}~~~)~~~~~
"The soul would have no rainbows if the eyes had no tears."
~Anon.
Sarah TC Takatani
E-mail: takats2@rpi.edu
Professional Work: http://www.lrc.rpi.edu
Homepage: Temporarily off-line for reconstruction
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Re: A tangent to the discussion of the net
Bankim J. Tejani <tejanb@rpi.edu>
Sat, 07 Sep 1996 15:24 -0400
It would take a lot for print media to become obselete.
First, a much bigger portion of the population will have to have
cheap if not free access to the internet.
Second, people will have to use it. For example, my brother has
his own account to the net. PPP, the works. However, I use it
more than he does. That bridge has to be crossed before print
becomes extinct.
Also, reading something in print, say in a magazine, has a completely
different 'feel' than on the net.
These are just some of the thresholds that must be crossed for
print to become a dinosaur.
Bankim J. Tejani # tejanb@rpi.edu # http://lotus.stu.rpi.edu/
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - Class of 1999
Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
"The eyes of truth are always watching you." -- Enigma
The Roots of Evil and Prejudice: a. Religion b. Apathy c. Humans
